American Odds to Implied Probability Table
Related book: The Sports Investing Blueprint by Ethan Cole · Amazon
This is a reference table of hypothetical American prices. The rows are not live odds, not a board, and not a suggestion to bet either side. Nothing here is a pick.
Source: Ethan Cole Sports, American odds to implied probability table
How to read the tables
The main table steps from 100 to 300 by 5, then from 325 to 500 by 25, then from 550 to 1000 by 50. The negative side comes first. The positive side repeats the same steps. -300 and +300 are the last rows of the step of 5, so they are not repeated.
Decimal odds are the total return on a one-unit stake, including the stake. Implied probability is the break-even win rate of that price alone. The break-even column repeats it on purpose, so a citation can quote either heading and get the same figure.
Each displayed decimal and each displayed percent is the exact fraction rounded half up to two decimal places. Do not multiply those rounded decimals and treat the product as exact. The parlay odds page shows how that chaining error moves a payout.
In the two-way table, total implied is the sum of the two displayed percentages. Overround is that sum minus 100. The no-vig cells use the proportional method only: divide each exact implied probability by the exact sum of the two, then round half up. Each no-vig cell is rounded on its own, so the pair can add to 99.99 or 100.01. Other no-vig methods exist. They are not in this table.
The formulas
For a negative American price, drop the minus and call that number A. Implied probability = A / (A + 100). Decimal odds = (A + 100) / A.
For a positive American price, call the posted number A. Implied probability = 100 / (A + 100). Decimal odds = (A + 100) / 100.
Worked examples of the same rounding, including a two-way -110 market and a -150 / +130 market, are on implied probability and the vig. This page extends that arithmetic across a fixed list. It does not find an edge.
Single prices
| American | Decimal odds | Implied probability | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| -100 | 2.00 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| -105 | 1.95 | 51.22% | 51.22% |
| -110 | 1.91 | 52.38% | 52.38% |
| -115 | 1.87 | 53.49% | 53.49% |
| -120 | 1.83 | 54.55% | 54.55% |
| -125 | 1.80 | 55.56% | 55.56% |
| -130 | 1.77 | 56.52% | 56.52% |
| -135 | 1.74 | 57.45% | 57.45% |
| -140 | 1.71 | 58.33% | 58.33% |
| -145 | 1.69 | 59.18% | 59.18% |
| -150 | 1.67 | 60.00% | 60.00% |
| -155 | 1.65 | 60.78% | 60.78% |
| -160 | 1.63 | 61.54% | 61.54% |
| -165 | 1.61 | 62.26% | 62.26% |
| -170 | 1.59 | 62.96% | 62.96% |
| -175 | 1.57 | 63.64% | 63.64% |
| -180 | 1.56 | 64.29% | 64.29% |
| -185 | 1.54 | 64.91% | 64.91% |
| -190 | 1.53 | 65.52% | 65.52% |
| -195 | 1.51 | 66.10% | 66.10% |
| -200 | 1.50 | 66.67% | 66.67% |
| -205 | 1.49 | 67.21% | 67.21% |
| -210 | 1.48 | 67.74% | 67.74% |
| -215 | 1.47 | 68.25% | 68.25% |
| -220 | 1.45 | 68.75% | 68.75% |
| -225 | 1.44 | 69.23% | 69.23% |
| -230 | 1.43 | 69.70% | 69.70% |
| -235 | 1.43 | 70.15% | 70.15% |
| -240 | 1.42 | 70.59% | 70.59% |
| -245 | 1.41 | 71.01% | 71.01% |
| -250 | 1.40 | 71.43% | 71.43% |
| -255 | 1.39 | 71.83% | 71.83% |
| -260 | 1.38 | 72.22% | 72.22% |
| -265 | 1.38 | 72.60% | 72.60% |
| -270 | 1.37 | 72.97% | 72.97% |
| -275 | 1.36 | 73.33% | 73.33% |
| -280 | 1.36 | 73.68% | 73.68% |
| -285 | 1.35 | 74.03% | 74.03% |
| -290 | 1.34 | 74.36% | 74.36% |
| -295 | 1.34 | 74.68% | 74.68% |
| -300 | 1.33 | 75.00% | 75.00% |
| -325 | 1.31 | 76.47% | 76.47% |
| -350 | 1.29 | 77.78% | 77.78% |
| -375 | 1.27 | 78.95% | 78.95% |
| -400 | 1.25 | 80.00% | 80.00% |
| -425 | 1.24 | 80.95% | 80.95% |
| -450 | 1.22 | 81.82% | 81.82% |
| -475 | 1.21 | 82.61% | 82.61% |
| -500 | 1.20 | 83.33% | 83.33% |
| -550 | 1.18 | 84.62% | 84.62% |
| -600 | 1.17 | 85.71% | 85.71% |
| -650 | 1.15 | 86.67% | 86.67% |
| -700 | 1.14 | 87.50% | 87.50% |
| -750 | 1.13 | 88.24% | 88.24% |
| -800 | 1.13 | 88.89% | 88.89% |
| -850 | 1.12 | 89.47% | 89.47% |
| -900 | 1.11 | 90.00% | 90.00% |
| -950 | 1.11 | 90.48% | 90.48% |
| -1000 | 1.10 | 90.91% | 90.91% |
| +100 | 2.00 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| +105 | 2.05 | 48.78% | 48.78% |
| +110 | 2.10 | 47.62% | 47.62% |
| +115 | 2.15 | 46.51% | 46.51% |
| +120 | 2.20 | 45.45% | 45.45% |
| +125 | 2.25 | 44.44% | 44.44% |
| +130 | 2.30 | 43.48% | 43.48% |
| +135 | 2.35 | 42.55% | 42.55% |
| +140 | 2.40 | 41.67% | 41.67% |
| +145 | 2.45 | 40.82% | 40.82% |
| +150 | 2.50 | 40.00% | 40.00% |
| +155 | 2.55 | 39.22% | 39.22% |
| +160 | 2.60 | 38.46% | 38.46% |
| +165 | 2.65 | 37.74% | 37.74% |
| +170 | 2.70 | 37.04% | 37.04% |
| +175 | 2.75 | 36.36% | 36.36% |
| +180 | 2.80 | 35.71% | 35.71% |
| +185 | 2.85 | 35.09% | 35.09% |
| +190 | 2.90 | 34.48% | 34.48% |
| +195 | 2.95 | 33.90% | 33.90% |
| +200 | 3.00 | 33.33% | 33.33% |
| +205 | 3.05 | 32.79% | 32.79% |
| +210 | 3.10 | 32.26% | 32.26% |
| +215 | 3.15 | 31.75% | 31.75% |
| +220 | 3.20 | 31.25% | 31.25% |
| +225 | 3.25 | 30.77% | 30.77% |
| +230 | 3.30 | 30.30% | 30.30% |
| +235 | 3.35 | 29.85% | 29.85% |
| +240 | 3.40 | 29.41% | 29.41% |
| +245 | 3.45 | 28.99% | 28.99% |
| +250 | 3.50 | 28.57% | 28.57% |
| +255 | 3.55 | 28.17% | 28.17% |
| +260 | 3.60 | 27.78% | 27.78% |
| +265 | 3.65 | 27.40% | 27.40% |
| +270 | 3.70 | 27.03% | 27.03% |
| +275 | 3.75 | 26.67% | 26.67% |
| +280 | 3.80 | 26.32% | 26.32% |
| +285 | 3.85 | 25.97% | 25.97% |
| +290 | 3.90 | 25.64% | 25.64% |
| +295 | 3.95 | 25.32% | 25.32% |
| +300 | 4.00 | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| +325 | 4.25 | 23.53% | 23.53% |
| +350 | 4.50 | 22.22% | 22.22% |
| +375 | 4.75 | 21.05% | 21.05% |
| +400 | 5.00 | 20.00% | 20.00% |
| +425 | 5.25 | 19.05% | 19.05% |
| +450 | 5.50 | 18.18% | 18.18% |
| +475 | 5.75 | 17.39% | 17.39% |
| +500 | 6.00 | 16.67% | 16.67% |
| +550 | 6.50 | 15.38% | 15.38% |
| +600 | 7.00 | 14.29% | 14.29% |
| +650 | 7.50 | 13.33% | 13.33% |
| +700 | 8.00 | 12.50% | 12.50% |
| +750 | 8.50 | 11.76% | 11.76% |
| +800 | 9.00 | 11.11% | 11.11% |
| +850 | 9.50 | 10.53% | 10.53% |
| +900 | 10.00 | 10.00% | 10.00% |
| +950 | 10.50 | 9.52% | 9.52% |
| +1000 | 11.00 | 9.09% | 9.09% |
The file is american-odds-implied-probability.csv. It holds the main table only. It has no formulas. The prices are the same hypothetical reference values as the rows above.
Common two-way markets
These pairs are hypothetical too. They are not a listing from any book.
| Market | Implied A | Implied B | Total implied | Overround, points | No-vig A | No-vig B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -110/-110 | 52.38% | 52.38% | 104.76% | 4.76 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| -105/-115 | 51.22% | 53.49% | 104.71% | 4.71 | 48.92% | 51.08% |
| -120/+100 | 54.55% | 50.00% | 104.55% | 4.55 | 52.17% | 47.83% |
| -130/+110 | 56.52% | 47.62% | 104.14% | 4.14 | 54.27% | 45.73% |
| -140/+120 | 58.33% | 45.45% | 103.78% | 3.78 | 56.20% | 43.80% |
| -150/+130 | 60.00% | 43.48% | 103.48% | 3.48 | 57.98% | 42.02% |
| -160/+140 | 61.54% | 41.67% | 103.21% | 3.21 | 59.63% | 40.37% |
| -180/+160 | 64.29% | 38.46% | 102.75% | 2.75 | 62.57% | 37.43% |
| -200/+170 | 66.67% | 37.04% | 103.71% | 3.71 | 64.29% | 35.71% |
| -250/+200 | 71.43% | 33.33% | 104.76% | 4.76 | 68.18% | 31.82% |
| -300/+250 | 75.00% | 28.57% | 103.57% | 3.57 | 72.41% | 27.59% |
Parlays
A parlay multiplies one decimal from the single-price table by another. The margin already inside each price stays inside the product, so the gap against a fair payout grows as legs are added. How parlay odds are calculated does that multiplication for hypothetical -110 legs. Correlation can make the fair product the wrong benchmark. This table does not price same-game parlays.
The bankroll and line-shopping worksheet is a stake sheet, not this price list. It will not look up a row for you.
Educational content. Hypothetical prices only. No pick and no guarantee of profit. A listed break-even rate is not an edge. 18+/21+ where required. Only where legal. Responsible Gambling